This piece is a bit long and may seem disjointed, but only because we are so used to pat, over-simplified, one-sided answers for everything when reality is incredibly messy and wonderfully complex. I have a problem with the current issue of climate change. The problem is due PARTLY to the following:
- the facts point to climate cooling,
- the evidence that raw data is being altered to support the claim of “climate warming”
- the existence and use of sophisticated “weather craft,”
- the hopelessly tangled relationship between industry and governance,
- the naïve and simplistic habits of blame that people of earth have fallen into.
Please read http://www.amazon.com/Chemtrails-HAARP…/dp/1936239930.
July 27, 2017
Oh Penny, I’m so glad you wrote about this! The 300 scientists and academics who requested Congress investigate NOAA for “cooking the books,” sounds eerily like what’s going on today in regards to safe levels of radio and microwave frequencies in our environment.
A few years back, I actually called local “Flight Standards” because the artificial clouds were unusually low that day, and my throat became scratchy and irritated when I walked outside. Flight Standards (in Grand Rapids) sent me on a wild goose chase; first to the EPA, then the FAA, who sent me back to Flight Standards with no answers, only a online brochure about climate change, weather manipulation, and making “clouds” using water vapor. I did call Flight Standards a second time, and the same younger man I spoke to earlier told me all he knew was that the aircrafts doing the spraying had “clearance,” and had also observed that they were making “clouds,” but didn’t know why the clouds would irritate my throat. I recently checked the brochure link and it’s “no longer available.”
Thank you, Penny, for addressing this “hot” topic!
July 27, 2017
Come on Penny. Pretty one-side article. As you previously acknowledged in your HAARP article your are “not well-versed in the finer points of the climate change argument.” Information about the dramatic increases in CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere over the past 4 decades is well documented (see below) and human contribution is not a matter of “arrogance” but rather based on the fact that human population, which took over 100,000 years to reach 1 billion (around 1800), doubled in the next 150 years to over 2 billion, and then tripled in the last 50 years to over 7.4 billion, which combined with the impacts of the industrial revolution resulted in exponential growth in energy consumption and in human generated CO2 emissions, especially over the past 4-5 decades.
I love your work and your writings, and, given your background as an engineer, I thought you might want to be more aware of the data above and below.
REPORT: 2007 Carbon Trends: An annual update of the global carbon budget and trends
Contributors — Highlights
Authors: Corinne Le Quéré [C.Lequere@uea.ac.uk], Mike Raupach ](CSIRO, Australia), Philippe Ciais (Commissariat a L’Energie Atomique, France), Thomas Conway (USA), Chris Field (Carnegie Instituton of Washington, USA), Skee Houghton (Woods Hole Research Center, USA), et al
Atmospheric CO2 growth
Annual mean growth rate of atmospheric CO2 was 2.2 ppm per year in 2007 (up from 1.8 ppm in 2006), and above the 2.0 ppm average for the period 2000-2007. The average annual mean growth rate for the previous 20 years was about 1.5 ppm per year. This increase brought the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 383 ppm in 2007, 37% above the concentration at the start of the industrial revolution (about 280 ppm in 1750). The present concentration is the highest during the last 650,000 years and probably during the last 20 million years. [ppm = parts per million].
Emissions from land use change
Land use change was responsible for estimated net emissions of 1.5 PgC per year to the atmosphere. This is largely the difference between CO2 emissions from deforestation and CO2 uptake by reforestation. Emissions for 2006 and 2007 were extrapolated from the previous 25-year trend of 1.5 PgC per year. Land use change emissions come almost exclusively from deforestation in tropical countries with an estimated 41% from South and Central America, 43% from South and Southeast Asia, and 17% from Africa. An estimated 160 PgC were emitted to the atmosphere from land use change during the period 1850-2007 [1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons].
Emissions from fossil fuel and cement
Emissions increased from 6.2 PgC per year in 1990 to 8.5 PgC in 2007, a 38% increase from the Kyoto reference year 1990. The growth rate of emissions was 3.5% per year for the period of 2000-2007, an almost four fold increase from 0.9% per year in 1990-1999. The actual emissions growth rate for 2000-2007 exceeded the highest forecast growth rates for the decade 2000-2010.
Regional fossil fuel emissions
The biggest increase in emissions has taken place in developing countries, largely in China and India, while developed countries have been growing slowly. The largest regional shift was that China passed the U.S. in 2006 to become the largest CO2 emitter, and India will soon overtake Russia to become the third largest emitter. Currently, more than half of the global emissions come from less developed countries.
CO2 removal by natural sinks
Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks have removed 54% (or 4.8 PgC per year) of all CO2 emitted from human activities during the period 2000-2007. The size of the natural sinks has grown in proportion to increasing atmospheric CO2. However, the efficiency of these sinks in removing CO2 has decreased by 5% over the last 50 years, and will continue to do so in the future. That is, 50 years ago, for every ton of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere, natural sinks removed 600 kg. Currently, the sinks are removing only 550 kg for every ton of CO2 emitted, and this amount is falling.
Natural Ocean CO2 sinks
The global oceanic CO2 sink removed 25% of all CO2 emissions for the period 2000-2007, equivalent to an average of 2.3 PgC per year. The size of the CO2 sink in 2007 was similar to that in the previous year but lower by 0.1 PgC compared to its expected increase from atmospheric CO2 growth. This was due to the presence of a La Nina event in the equatorial Pacific. The Southern Ocean CO2 sink was higher in 2007 compared to 2006, consistent with the relatively weak winds and the low Southern Annular Mode (a circumpolar pressure oscillation between Antarctica and southern mid-latitudes). An analysis of the long term trend of the ocean sink shows a slower growth than expected of the CO2 sink over the last 20 years.
Natural Land CO2 sinks
Terrestrial CO2 sinks removed 29% of all anthropogenic emissions for the period 2000-2007, equivalent to an average of 2.6 PgC per year. Terrestrial ecosystems removed 2.9 PgC in 2007, down from 3.6 Pg in 2006, largely showing the high year-to-year variability of the sink. An analysis of the long term trend of the terrestrial sink shows a growing size of the CO2 sink over the last 50 years.
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions have been growing about four times faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, and despite efforts to curb emissions in a number of countries which are signatories of the Kyoto Protocol. Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel and land use change reached the mark of 10 billion tons of carbon in 2007. Natural CO2 sinks are growing, but more slowly than atmospheric CO2, which has been growing at 2 ppm per year since 2000. This is 33% faster than during the previous 20 years. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected.
Presentation (ppt, pdf)
Download a complete ppt presentation with an overview of the Carbon Budget 2007
(ppt, 3.3 Mb) (pdf, 1.5 Mb)
Additional emission figures (pdf 25Kb)
Atmospheric CO2 concentration (Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL), Fossil fuel emissions (Gregg Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg, CDIAC), Emissions from land use change (Richard A. Houghton, FAO ), Ocean sink (Corinne Le Quéré).
Data files and a complete description of data sources and calculations is availablle from: http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm .
References supporting this analysis
Canadell JG, Corinne Le Quéré, Michael R. Raupach, Christopher B. Field, Erik T. Buitehuis, Philippe Ciais, Thomas J. Conway, RA. Houghton, Gregg Marland (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks (pdf, 1.4Mb). Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 0702737104
Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2008) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in Africa. Biogeosciences (submitted).
Gregg JS, Andres RJ, Marland G (2008) China: Emissions pattern of the world leader in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L08806, doi:10.1029/2007GL032887.
Le Quéré C , Rödenbeck C, Buitenhuis ET, Conway TJ, Langensfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschangne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, Gillett NP, Heimann M (2007) Saturations of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change. Science 316, 5832: 1735-1738.
Raupach MR, G. Marland, P. Ciais, C. Quéré, J.G. Canadell, C.B. Field (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 14: 10288-10293
Other Recent Analyses
Luyssaert S, E. -Detlef Schulze, Annett Borner, Alexander Knohl, Dominik Hessenmoller, Beverly E. Law, Philippe Ciais, John Grace (2008) Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks. Nature 455, September 2008| doi:10.1038/nature07276.
Ciais P, M. J. Schelhaas, S. Zaehle1, S. L. Piao, A. Cescatti, J. Liski, S. Luyssaert, G. Le-Maire, E.-D. Schulze, O. Bouriaud, A. Freibauer, R. Valentini, G. J. Nabuurs (2008) Carbon accumulation in European forests. Nature Geoscience 1: 425–429, doi:10.1038/ngeo233.
Compton J. Tucker, and Inez Y. Fung, Wolfgang Buermann, Benjamin R. Lintner, Charles D. Koven, Alon Angert, Jorge E. Pinzon (2007) The changing carbon cycle at Mauna Loa Observatory. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 2007;104;4249-4254; originally published online. doi:10.1073/PNAS.0611224104.
Gurney KR, David Baker D, Rayner P, Denning S (2008) Interannual variations in continental-scale net carbon exchange and sensitivity to observing networks estimated from atmospheric CO2 inversions for the period 1980 to 2005. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22, GB3025, doi:10.1029/2007GB003082.
Nevison CD, Natalie M. Mahowald,1,2 Scott C. Doney,3 Ivan D. Lima,3 Guido R. van der Werf,4 James T. Randerson,5 David F. Baker,3 Prasad Kasibhatla, Galen A. McKinley (2008) Contribution of ocean, fossil fuel, land biosphere, and biomass burning carbon fluxes to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22, GB3008, doi:10.1029/2007GB003068.
Peters, W., A. Jacobson, C. Sweeney, A. Andrews, T.J., Conway, K.A., Masarie, J.B. Miller, L. Bruhwiler, G. Petron, A. Hirsch, D. Worthy, van der Werf G., Randerson J.T., Wennberg P., Krol M., Tans P.(2007) An atmospheric perspective on North American carbon dioxide exchange: CarbonTracker, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 104: 18925-18930.
Piao S, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Philippe Peylin, Markus Reichstein, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Hank Margolis, Jingyun Fang, Alan Barr, Anping Chen, Achim Grelle, David Y. Hollinger, Tuomas Laurila, Anders Lindroth, Andrew D. Richardson & Timo Vesala (2008) Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming Nature 451, 49-52, doi:10.1038/nature06444.
Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Anthropogenic and biophysical contributions to increasing atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences Discuss 5: 2867-2896.
Schuster U, Watson A (2007) A variable and decreasing sink for atmospheric CO2 in the North Atlantic. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, C11006, doi:10.1029/2006JC003941.
Stephens et al (2007) Weak Northern and Strong Tropical Land Carbon Uptake from Vertical Profiles of Atmospheric CO2. Science. 22 June 2007: 1732-1735 DOI: 10.1126/science.1137004.
Takahashi et al. (2008). Global sea.air CO2 flux based on climatological surface ocean pCO2, and seasonal biological and temperature effects. Deep. Sea Research, 49, 1411-1421.
Canadell JG, Pataki D, Gifford R, Houghton RA, Lou Y, Raupach MR, Smith P, Steffen W (2007) Saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink. (pdf, 1Mb) In: Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, Canadell JG, Pataki D, Pitelka L (eds.), pp. 59-78. The IGBP Series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 59-78.
Doney S, Schimel D (2007) Carbon and Climate System Coupling. Annual Review of Environment and Resources.
IPCC (2007) Chapter 7. WG1Fourth Assessment Report. Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry (pdf, 3.12 Mb)
Heimann M, Reichstein M (2008) Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks. Nature 45, January 2008|doi:10.1038/nature06591.
Houghton RA (2007) Balancing the global carbon budget. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 35: 313-347
© GCP 2001-2008 | Global Carbon Project | email@example.com
July 27, 2017
Thanks for your fervent comments but I don’t buy the idea that climate change is solely or even mostly the result of rising CO2. Documenting dramatic increases in CO2 may prove that a condition of high CO2 exists, but says nothing about its link to or causation of climate change. Such a claim is human speculation.
It is obvious to me that climate change is cyclical and indigenous to all planetary systems. I don’t like the fact that government spent years hyping the idea of ‘planetary warming,’ blaming that on human activities, and then, when it became obvious that it was cooling, they quickly changed their terminology to ‘climate change’ and have used weather technology to create droughts, floods, and snow storms to drive home their point and create paranoia.
I know that CO2 has been increasing, and there is some basis for saying that CO2 increase can be blamed on ‘human activities.’ Certainly we are contributing, and I labeled this ongoing contribution as ‘stupid’ in my article. But even so, I don’t see an increase in CO2 as necessarily bad. An environment of rising CO2 makes an excellent environment for nurturing trees, plants, and vegetation. When we cut trees down by the billions, the rise in CO2 is part of Mother Earth’s mechanism for making sure the remaining vegetation is very well-nourished and has a more supportive environment than usual in order to encourage the new growth that replaces what was lost. Plants love a high carbon dioxide environment!
Your timelines of population numbers DO follow the ‘party line of history’ as taught generally, but what is taught generally is not accurate. The truth is that our entire population was nearly wiped out 3 times in the period between 13,000 BC and 9,600 BC. Evidence from ice cores, and geological samples around Pennsylvania and New Jersey show that there were both catastrophic floods and fires triggered by a number of comet pieces that hit the ice cap and just at the edge of it, instantly melting huge areas of ice here and in Europe, and burning up everything else. Huge numbers of people, animals, and plants were lost in the aftermath and CO2 would have risen spectacularly because of all the carbon released, but the smoke and ash created such a heavy screen for sunlight that temperatures dropped precipitously and we entered a 1,000+ year period of freezing called the Younger Dryas period. Population numbers have been up and down dramatically over the years, with evidence of highly developed civilizations back 400 million years ago. From a near wipe-out roughly 10,000 years ago, we have reached our current numbers.
I appreciate your comments and the time it took to assemble your thoughts and references!
July 27, 2017
This looks very interesting, Elana. I put it on my reading list. Thanks!
July 27, 2017
I feel the same way when the sun is shining and the skies are a beautiful blue.
July 27, 2017
Simultaneously, in the beginning and the end of all things – “Reality is incredibly messy and wonderfully complex.” My heart starts pounding and my pulse increases the more I’m able to tie all the loose ends together – life’s inter-twinedness is an ever bigger ball of rubber bands :)
Enjoyed your bullet points, which sent me off exploring a couple avenues I haven’t kept up on, especially weathercraft. I wondered about Jonas too. Made my way through the YouTube series.
We had a couple hours yesterday (Sunday) of clear blue skies and normal clouds. It felt like I hadn’t seen that in years. It was amazing how whole and happy I felt underneath that sky, instead of the murky, frenetic sky that has become the new norm.
Thanks and Happy February. – Michelle
July 27, 2017
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